Ofgem Price Cap Forecaster

In 2021, Ofgem's energy price cap for a typical household was around £1,000 a year and had remained relatively stable for some time. That changed rapidly. The cap increased by almost 30%, attracting significant mainstream media attention, before rising again by a further 40% as wholesale energy prices continued to climb.

Before those increases were announced, EPI's founder, Tony Jordan, had already begun monitoring the likely impact of wholesale-market movements by applying Ofgem's published price-cap methodology and estimating future cap levels ahead of the official announcements. This enabled Tony to provide media organisations with both an estimated cap level and an explanation of the wholesale costs and market conditions driving the forecast.

Throughout 2021 and 2022, Tony tracked the cap's development on a daily basis, publishing estimates of how each day's wholesale-price movements affected forthcoming cap periods. Some of those forecasts received national media coverage during the height of the energy crisis.

Price-cap forecasting is now undertaken by a growing number of analysts and organisations. Although it is not Energy Price Intelligence's primary area of focus, EPI continues to monitor the cap and publishes its independent assessment here.

Adjust wholesale price assumptions to model different cap scenarios. Forecast and indicative quarters recalculate instantly. Confirmed quarters always show Ofgem published figures.